Released On 4/27/2017 8:30:00 AM For Mar, 2017
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Actual
New Orders - M/M change 1.7 % 2.3 % 1.1 % 0.7 %
New Orders - Yr/Yr Change 5.0 % 4.5 % 5.8 %
Ex-transportation - M/M 0.4 % 0.7 % 0.4 % -0.2 %
Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr 4.6 % 5.1 % 4.6 %
Core capital goods - M/M change -0.1 % 0.1 % 0.4 % 0.2 %
Core capital goods - Yr/Yr 2.7 % 3.1 % 3.0 %
Aircraft lifted durable orders throughout the first quarter and made for a very solid 0.7 percent rise in March. But the story is different when excluding civilian aircraft as the ex-transportation reading fell 0.2 percent which is below Econoday's low estimate. And core capital goods (nondefense ex-aircraft) are soft, up only 0.2 percent for only half the gain that was expected.
Civilian aircraft orders during March jumped 8.7 percent which comes on top of monthly gains of 75 percent and 188 percent in the prior two months. Aircraft orders did lag last year but this rate of gain is not likely to be sustained. A modest plus in the report comes from shipments of core capital goods (in contrast to orders) which rose 0.4 percent in what will be constructive for the nonresidential investment component of tomorrow's first-quarter GDP report.
But the gain for capital goods shipments, given the weakness in underlying orders, will only steal from April and second-quarter shipments. Outside of aircraft, the factory sector, held back by weak foreign demand, has not lived up to the enormous acceleration being indicated by a host of regional reports led by the ISM and Philly Fed.
Source: Bloomberg
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