Two days ago, on Wednesday April 26th, I have attended the New England Study Group seminar hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston's Research Department. Keren Horn from University of Massachusetts Boston presented her research about "Crime and Neighborhood Change: Has Falling Crime Invited Gentrification?" Keren talked about how over the past two decades, crime has fallen dramatically in U.S. cities. Between 1990 and 2012, the national crime rate fell by 44 percent. During this same period, the proportion of lower-income neighborhoods experiencing a gain in economic status increased markedly. Specifically, the share of low-income neighborhoods experiencing gains in income rose from 21 percent in the 1970s and 1980s to 41 percent during the 1990s. Meanwhile, the share of neighborhoods that were racially integrated rose from just under 20 percent in 1990 to over 30 percent in the 2000s. In this analysis Keren explores whether these phenomena are related. Her research explores whether, in the face of falling central city crime rates, households with more resources and options were more likely to move into central cities overall and, more particularly, into low-income central city neighborhoods. Her study finds that declines in city crime are associated with increases in the probability that high-income and college-educated households choose to move into central city neighborhoods, including low-income central city neighborhoods. She also finds little evidence that households with lower incomes and without college degrees are more likely to move to cities when violent crime falls. These results hold during the 1990s as well as the 2000s and for the 100 largest metropolitan areas, where crime declines were greatest.
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